Until recently, Italy stood alone among major Western nations that signed up for the Chinese flagship project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, in late 2023, the government in Rome, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, made a significant shift by announcing its decision to withdraw from the BRI agreement. Barely a month later, Italy unveiled its counter-foreign policy initiative: the Mattei Plan for Africa. This strategic move signals Italy’s intention to assert itself on the global stage, particularly in countering China’s BRI and other foreign economic policies in Africa. With a $6 billion price tag over the next four years, the Mattei Plan aims to rival the 10-year-old multibillion-dollar BRI.
This article delves into the challenges and opportunities inherent in the Mattei Plan’s ambition to challenge China’s dominance in Africa and other external economic engagements.
The Africa Century is here
In recent years, numerous scholars and practitioners have expressed a growing sense of optimism for the African continent, often referring to it as the “African Century.” Abe Selassie, an expert from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), shares this sentiment, characterizing it as “a century of inclusive growth for the African continent.” This optimism, as outlined by Abe, is rooted in three key factors: Africa’s burgeoning population, the ongoing digital revolution, and a steadfast commitment to environmental sustainability.
For the first time in history, Africa is gradually asserting its presence on the international stage. During India’s G20 presidency last year, the African Union achieved a significant milestone by becoming the 21st member of the G20, marking a historic moment since the group’s establishment in 1999. Although not a member of the UN Security Council, the Africa group has wielded considerable influence in addressing global issues within the council’s purview. While the UN attributes Africa’s underrepresentation to its history of colonization during the body’s inception, critics point to Western hegemony, particularly that of the United States, as a perpetuating factor in the power imbalance.
Simultaneously, the African continent has experienced a burgeoning influence from China, marked by substantial contributions to trade and investment, mostly through the BRI. Launched in 2013 by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the BRI emphasizes five key areas: policy coordination, infrastructure development, investment and trade facilitation, financial integration, and cultural and social exchange. According to the IMF, China has emerged as Africa’s largest trading partner, a significant creditor, and a major source of foreign direct investment (FDI). Notably, one-fifth of the region’s total goods exports are directed to China.
By 2017, McKinsey reported the presence of at least 10,000 Chinese companies operating in Africa, with China overseeing at least half of all infrastructure projects on the continent. By the 10th anniversary of the BRI, the Boston University Global Development Center documented that Chinese Development Financial Institutions (DFIs) in Africa disbursed $123 billion between 2008 and 2021, with $91 billion allocated during the BRI years alone. Additionally, Chinese commercial entities and other actors provided $30 billion to African governments from 2008 to 2021, with $23 billion contributed during the BRI period.
Africa’s oil is a big deal
Africa has become China’s second-largest exporter of oil, trailing only behind the Middle East in this regard. Major African sources of China’s oil imports include Angola, the Republic of Congo, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria. Remarkably, Chinese state-owned oil companies such as the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC/PetroChina) entered the African oil market in the late 1990s, marking a significant shift away from Western dominance.
However, China’s engagement with Africa extends beyond mere economic transactions. Chinese investment in Africa’s oil sector has been substantial, signalling a deepening of ties and interests beyond commerce.
On the diplomatic front, China has established diplomatic relations with all African countries except Eswatini. Furthermore, recent UN voting patterns among African nations have shown a favorable disposition towards China. This trend has posed a challenge to the traditional Western role in impoverished nations, particularly in Africa, prompting Western powers to seek alternative strategies for countering China’s influence.
However, China’s attempts to promote the BRI in Western countries have encountered significant pushback. In Australia, for example, the Federal Government blocked Victoria State’s BRI agreement. In a surprising move in March 2019, Italy, led by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, became the first major Western state, a member of both NATO and the G7, to join the BRI. Despite Conte’s defense of the decision at the time, the current Prime Minister, Meloni, has labeled it a “big mistake.” In early December 2023, Italy announced its intention to withdraw from the BRI, even though the Memorandum of Understanding remained valid until 2024.
According to an article in China’s state media China Daily, between 2019 and 2021, Italy’s exports to China surged by 42 percent, and bilateral trade reached nearly $78 billion in 2022, making China Italy’s largest trade partner in Asia. China expressed disappointment at Italy’s withdrawal from the BRI and warned against tarnishing its BRI engagements.
The alternative: Mattei Plan for Africa
Indeed, the story doesn’t end there. Prime Minister Meloni has now transitioned Italy from being a beneficiary of China’s BRI to a proponent of an alternative project aimed at countering the BRI’s influence in Africa. Under her administration, Africa is set to receive up to €3 billion in investment over the next four years, marking a significant shift in Italy’s foreign policy approach towards the continent. This move demonstrates Italy’s commitment to engaging with Africa on its own terms and competing with China’s economic initiatives in the region.
The Mattei Plan takes its name from Enrico Mattei, an Italian public administrator and oil tycoon renowned for securing Italy’s energy independence and propelling the national oil and gas company, Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi (ENI), to compete successfully against global oil giants like Total, Shell, and ExxonMobil. Mattei’s bold declaration before his untimely death in 1962, stating that the American monopoly in the oil industry was over, epitomized his vision and determination.
In essence, Mattei achieved his objectives by forging oil import agreements and securing concessions in resource-rich yet economically disadvantaged nations across the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Africa.
Prime Minister Meloni’s vision for the Mattei Plan revolves around fostering cooperation between Italy and Africa as equals, emphasizing a relationship far removed from predatory practices. Italy aims to establish a mutually beneficial partnership with African nations, wherein the continent can flourish and capitalize on its abundant resources. According to the government in Rome, central to this approach is the concept of win-win cooperation.
Under the Mattei framework, Rome will concentrate on five key areas of development in Africa: education and training, healthcare, agriculture, water management, and energy. By focusing on these pillars, Italy seeks to empower African countries to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity while fostering stronger ties between the two regions.
I will now delve into the analysis of Prime Minister Meloni’s inaugural address delivered at the summit on Monday, January 29, 2024, to establish the implications of the Mattei Plan for Africa.
In Morocco, for instance, the Mattei Plan pledges the establishment of a “large center of excellence for vocational training in the field of renewable energy,” indicating a strategic focus on advancing renewable energy expertise. Moreover, the plan prioritizes education and training, aiming to enhance the skill set of the African workforce through comprehensive training programs, infrastructure enhancements, and academic exchanges among institutions.
Similarly, Cote d’Ivoire is slated to benefit from health initiatives geared towards bolstering maternal and child health services and enhancing overall access to basic healthcare.
The plan’s emphasis on agriculture and food production is evident in its projects for Algeria and Mozambique. In Algeria, a satellite monitoring project is slated to be implemented to enhance agricultural productivity, while Mozambique is set to host an agri-food center aimed at promoting the excellence of local products and facilitating their importation.
In summary, Prime Minister Meloni’s commitments at the summit underscore Italy’s proactive role in fostering sustainable development across Africa through the Mattei Plan, promising significant advancements in renewable energy, education, healthcare, and agriculture.
The Mattei Plan Coverage for selected African countries is illustrated below. Please note that this is only partial information from the Prime Minister’s speech at the summit. A complete whitepaper on the Mattei Plan is yet to be made available by the Italian Government.
Source: The author’s illustration of Prime Minister Meloni’s address at the Italy-Africa Summit, posted on the Italian Government Presidency of the Council of Ministers website.
In summary, the Mattei Plan pledges infrastructure development, economic cooperation, and educational and cultural exchanges for recipient countries. While official details of the plan are limited, analysts and scholars eagerly anticipate further information. Prime Minister Meloni has clarified that the Mattei Plan is envisioned as a pilot project, with the intention of replicating its success in other regions of Africa once proven effective.
The other side of the Mattei Plan
One particularly significant and contentious aspect of the Mattei Plan is its objective to address the migration flows across the Mediterranean into the European Union, particularly through Italy. The year 2015 marked a period of intense migration into the EU, primarily driven by people fleeing conflicts in regions such as Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. According to the UN refugee agency UNHCR, by December 7 of that year, approximately 911,000 migrants had arrived at European borders. Tragically, this migration also resulted in significant loss of life, with at least 3,500 individuals perishing at sea enroute to Europe.
The European Union has grappled with internal divisions over how to address illegal migration, failing to establish a unified migration policy. Some member states, such as Hungary, Czech Republic, and Poland, have implemented stringent border protection measures, while others, like Germany and Sweden, have been praised for their more accommodating approach.
However, the migration crisis in Europe is multifaceted. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, European nations demonstrated a markedly different response, welcoming Ukrainian refugees with open arms. Research into this differential treatment highlighted factors such as the racial and religious backgrounds of the refugees, with Ukrainians being predominantly white and Christian, as well as the composition of the refugee demographics, which included a higher proportion of women and children compared to previous migrant flows.
Italy, due to its geographical proximity to the Mediterranean, has borne a disproportionate burden of illegal migration, particularly from African countries. Data from the UNHCR indicates that in 2023 alone, approximately 157,651 illegal migrants entered Italy by sea, with 1,897 of them either perishing or reported missing. This influx has placed immense pressure on Italy’s resources and infrastructure. In response, Prime Minister Meloni, during her political campaigns, vowed to prevent Italy from becoming “Europe's refugee camp,” a stance that resonated with voters and contributed to her electoral victory. Recent measures undertaken by Rome include the extension of detention terms for illegal migrants to up to 18 months and the establishment of new detention centers.
Although Prime Minister Meloni’s address at the Italy-Africa Summit made scant mention of the illegal immigration crisis, many speculate that the Mattei Plan indirectly aims to address this issue.
Comparing the Mattei Plan to BRI may seem unrealistic given the substantial disparity in funding. However, both projects share commonalities in their focus on investing in Africa, particularly in infrastructure and trade. Thus, it is worthwhile to examine and contrast the two initiatives to ascertain their respective advantages and potential impacts.
Mattei’s legacy and Italy’s ‘colonial baggage’
Enrico Mattei’s legacy, as explored in preceding sections, epitomizes a determined pursuit of success at any cost. Many attribute his achievements in Africa, particularly in nations like Tunisia, Morocco, Ghana, and Sudan, to his respectful and non-exploitative approach toward the African people, in stark contrast to the practices of the dominant oil conglomerates known as the Seven Sisters. These conglomerates, including entities like Standard Oil Company of New Jersey (later Exxon), Standard Oil Company of New York (later Mobil), Standard Oil Company of California (later Chevron), Texas Oil Company (later Texaco), Gulf Oil (later merging with Chevron), Anglo-Persian Oil Company (later British Petroleum), and Royal Dutch/Shell, exerted significant influence over the global oil industry during that era.
The decision to name the initiative after Mattei should serve as a reminder to African nations of Italy’s ambitions to become an energy powerhouse with uninterrupted energy supplies. This is particularly relevant today as Europe seeks energy independence from Russian oil and gas in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Africa has emerged as a potential market for alternative oil sources, with approximately 40% of Europe's oil coming from the continent. Following the significant decrease in Russian oil exports to Europe between February 2022 and September 2023 due to punitive measures following the invasion of Ukraine, Africa has gained increased importance as an oil market.
Italy’s colonial history in Africa, though arriving later compared to other European counterparts, left a lasting impact on the Horn of Africa and North Africa. The colonization of Eritrea in 1882 and Somalia in 1889, along with attempts to conquer Ethiopia and the successful conquest of Libya in 1911, reflect Italy’s colonial past in the region. Despite suffering defeats and committing atrocities, Italy’s colonial legacy in Africa cannot be ignored, and addressing this history is a crucial aspect of the success of the Mattei Plan.
In contrast, China boasts a lack of colonial baggage and presents itself as a peaceful nation and a true friend of Africa. This anti-colonial sentiment has bolstered China’s relationships with African nations, challenging the traditional ties between the continent and its former colonial powers. In the “new battle for Africa,” China holds an advantage over Western nations due to this perception.
The Mattei Plan, therefore, faces the challenge of addressing Italy’s colonial past in Africa while competing with China’s advantageous position as a non-colonial actor in the region. Both historical legacies will play a significant role in shaping Africa's future relations with these global powers.
Scope of the Mattei Plan
The $6 billion Mattei Plan, while significant in its ambition, pales in comparison to China’s extensive investments in Africa through the BRI. China’s BRI, with its massive financial backing, presents a formidable challenge for any other country to match bilaterally. To put it into perspective, if China provided Africa with $91 billion over ten years through the BRI, while Italy plans to provide $6 billion over four years, this means that China lent approximately $9.1 billion annually, compared to Italy’s $1.5 billion per year. Therefore, the Mattei Plan is over six times smaller than China’s BRI in terms of financial scale, and it is also being rolled out a decade later.
Italy’s economic constraints further compound the challenge. With sluggish growth expected in 2024, high unemployment rates, and a staggering debt-to-GDP ratio among the highest globally, Italy’s capacity to substantially increase funding for the Mattei Plan seems improbable. In 2024, the economy of Italy is expected to grow at an average of 1%. In 2022, the unemployment rate in Italy was 8.2% and although a slight decrease (to 8%) in 2024 is expected, the general labor market in Italy is struggling. That’s not the biggest problem Italy is worrying about. The country’s debt to GPD ratio is seriously upsetting— it reached 144.41% in 2022, some of the highest in the whole world.
Unless Italy significantly increases its financial commitment to Africa, which appears unlikely given its economic predicament, China’s dominance in the region will remain unmatched. Despite initial predictions of the BRI’s demise on its 10th anniversary due to reduced loans, recent research indicates a resurgence in BRI engagement in 2023, with a notable 24% increase in activity with BRI countries.
Furthermore, the geographical focus of the Mattei Plan predominantly on North Africa raises concerns. Ignoring the vast and poorer nations south of the Sahara suggests a narrow strategic approach, potentially driven by Italy’s interests in addressing the Mediterranean migration crisis rather than broader development goals for the continent.
In contrast, China’s BRI spans across continents without geographical limitations, showcasing Beijing’s far-reaching influence and investments in Africa, which surpass those of any other nation.
Mattei Plan or “Meloni Plan”?
The timing of the Mattei Plan coinciding with Prime Minister Meloni’s presidency raises questions about its effectiveness and long-term impact. With Meloni’s term set to expire in 2027, coinciding with the end date of the four-year Mattei Plan, concerns arise about whether such a short timeframe allows for significant and sustainable development outcomes. Additionally, the lack of finalized documentation and consultation with African nations prior to the plan’s rollout suggests a rushed and potentially ad hoc approach, raising doubts about its sustainability and effectiveness. The African Union Chairman, who was attending the Italy-Africa Summit said Africa was green about the plan, casting doubts as to whether or not any consultations were made with the beneficiaries.
Furthermore, the Mattei Plan’s disconnection from broader European Union policies in Africa and its focus on cracking down on illegal migration, a key promise of Meloni’s presidential bid, suggests a narrow and short-sighted strategy. Critics argue that a more comprehensive and collaborative approach, aligned with EU policies and developed in consultation with African stakeholders, would be more beneficial in addressing Africa’s challenges in the long term.
Another point of contention is the Mattei Plan’s environmental implications. At a time when the world is increasingly shifting towards renewable energy and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, Italy’s investment in fossil fuel-related projects through the Mattei Plan contradicts its reputation as a champion of clean energy development. Despite Prime Minister Meloni’s defense of the plan’s sustainability aspects, concerns persist about its environmental impact and alignment with global efforts to combat climate change. China has equally faced backlash in Africa over the environmental costs of its investments.
Finally, the Mattei Plan could indeed hold the potential to serve as a double-edged sword in Italy’s relations with France and its influence in Africa. Prime Minister Meloni has in recent years, criticized France’s predatory relationships with African nations, and is frustrated over the lack of European Union support in addressing the Mediterranean immigration burden. By implementing the Mattei Plan, Italy could assert itself as a key player in regions historically dominated by France, potentially challenging French political influence. Moreover, the plan’s repeated mention of mutually beneficial cooperation and sustainable development may appear appealing to most African countries.
China’s President Xi Jinping on the other hand enjoys an indefinite term in office. This allows for the continuity and longevity of policies such as the BRI, providing a more stable and consistent approach to investment and development in Africa. Just as Prime Minister Meloni swiftly revoked the agreements her predecessor, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, had made with Beijing regarding BRI, it stands to reason that the fate of the Mattei Plan could be similarly uncertain. The longevity and success of the plan may hinge on the political landscape and leadership changes that occur in the future.
Overall, the Mattei Plan’s short timeframe, lack of consultation, and environmental implications raise questions about its effectiveness and sustainability compared to broader, more collaborative approaches.
Not entirely an “empty box”
Despite the myriad challenges, the Mattei Plan presents unique opportunities for Africa. Italy’s participation offers an additional source of financing for development, supplementing existing options such as China and others. This presents a significant opportunity for poor nations to obtain the necessary funding for critical development initiatives.
Furthermore, Italy has the opportunity to learn from China’s past mistakes and offer a distinct approach grounded in trust, transparency, quality, and environmental sustainability. By prioritizing consultation with beneficiary countries, Italy can tailor its approach to address the specific needs and priorities of African nations. This kind of proactive engagement will foster stronger partnerships and ensure that development projects align closely with local contexts, hence, effectiveness and long-term sustainability.
For Italy, the plan serves as a means of leveraging Rome’s soft power on the African continent, bolstering its international standing particularly as it chairs the G7. Additionally, cultural exchanges facilitated by the plan have the potential to enhance Italy’s global influence.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government faces the challenge of establishing the Mattei Plan as a credible alternative to China's BRI in Africa. While the plan offers opportunities for strengthening Italy’s engagement with Africa and fostering mutually beneficial partnerships, it must overcome funding limitations, navigate geopolitical complexities, and contend with competition from established players like China.
By capitalizing on Italy’s strengths, pursuing strategic partnerships, and prioritizing sustainable development practices, the Mattei Plan can significantly impact Africa and contribute to a more equitable and inclusive approach to economic diplomacy worldwide. However, its success ultimately hinges on effective implementation, adaptability, and a steadfast commitment to collaboration and shared prosperity with African nations.
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