Australia’s 2025 Federal Election: Albanese’s Victory and the Future of Immigration

A unique electoral system

On May 3, Australians participated in their federal election—a process distinctive not only for its complexity but also for its mandatory nature. Unlike in countries such as Uganda or even the United States, where voting remains a choice, Australia legally obligates all eligible citizens aged 18 and above to vote. Failure to do so typically attracts a penalty of A$20, administered by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). Persistent non-compliance can escalate to court proceedings and additional penalties. For instance, following the 2022 federal election, the AEC issued first-instance notices to over 1.26 million individuals for failing to vote, of whom only about 287,000 provided valid reasons for their absence.

The Australian electoral system is among the most complex in modern democracies. It comprises three levels of government—federal, state and territory, and local—each with its own election cycles. The federal election, which occurs at least every three years, involves two houses: the House of Representatives (lower house) and the Senate (upper house), each elected through distinct voting systems.

The key election promises

Though vote counting is still underway, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Australian Labor Party have declared victory in the 2025 federal elections, with opposition leader Peter Dutton conceding defeat. The election campaign largely revolved around economic management and immigration policy—two themes that significantly shaped public sentiment.

Immigration emerged as a particularly contentious issue. Australian politicians across the spectrum argued that increased migration, especially from international students, has exacerbated the housing crisis, driven up property prices, and placed added strain on public services. This narrative gained traction in the public arena, despite the economic benefits international students bring. In 2024 alone, Australia hosted approximately 853,045 international students, primarily from China, India, and Nepal. These students contributed an estimated A$51.0 billion to the Australian economy through tuition fees and spending, making education the country’s fourth-largest export sector.

Nonetheless, Peter Dutton campaigned on a platform of drastically reducing migration. His proposals included capping annual migrant intake by 100,000 and limiting overseas to some of the lowest in history. In contrast, Albanese’s approach, though comparatively moderate, was still characterized by caution rather than openness. While not openly antagonistic to migration, his administration has already introduced policies aimed at curbing net migration.

Not much optimism for migrants

The re-election of Albanese and the Labor Party does not signify a decisive victory for migrants or international students. As both major political parties expressed skepticism about high migration levels, substantive policy tightening seems inevitable. Prior to the election, the Albanese government had already committed to reducing net migration by 40% in the 2023/24 financial year. Between July and October 2024 alone, net migration had already fallen by 12% compared to the previous year. The government has also signaled its intent to cap migration at 260,000 in the 2024/25 fiscal year.

Thus, while Labor’s return to power may delay the more draconian measures proposed by the opposition, it does not mean a fundamentally pro-immigration stance. The immigration debate in Australia reflects a broader global trend: rising skepticism toward migration in the Global North. The United States under former President Donald Trump saw similar rhetoric and restrictive immigration policies, and the United Kingdom continues to pursue policies aimed at reducing migrant inflows. In such a global context, it becomes imperative for governments to assess migration not only through the lens of populist sentiment but also through evidence-based evaluations of economic and social contributions.

Australia’s 2025 federal election outcome signals continuity, rather than radical change, in the country’s approach to immigration. While Labor’s victory may offer temporary reprieve from the harsher policies advocated by the opposition, migrants and international students are unlikely to see significant policy relaxation in the near term. As the immigration debate evolves, Australia—like many countries—must carefully balance public concerns with the long-term economic imperatives that migrants so often help to address.