I write this article today as we celebrate the State of Libya on its 72nd independence anniversary. Libya is cherished as one of Africa’s first countries to gain independence and is often used as a case study in the “responsibility to protect” (R2P) or the “Just War” theory discussions.
Although the debate on whether or not it is justifiable to use force by the UN Security Council or any country or group of nations on an independent and “sovereign” state in an attempt to “protect its citizens” is beyond the scope of this piece, it presents an outlook of Libya and its current security challenges, discusses forces undermining peace and security progress in the North African country, and provides insights into peace and stability of Libya. The piece draws from a wide range of past cases of humanitarian intervention in Africa and the Middle East.
Libya: An Overview
I know it might sound kiddish, but how about we start by locating Libya and knowing what and who is in it before diving into the main topic of discussion?
Libya, a North African Arab nation bordering the Mediterranean Sea, Tunisia, Egypt, and Algeria, is Africa’s largest oil-exporting country, producing at least 1173 barrels per day in July 2023 (Business Insider Africa, 2023). Libya is also a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) since 1962. Moreover, Libya is the 4th largest African country with an area spanning 1,759,540 sq km (about twice the area of Egypt). This size makes Libya the world’s 18th largest country.
Although it is a vast country, Libya’s land has few resources except oil, natural gas, and gypsum. In fact, unlike in other African countries, agriculture only constitutes about 9% of the country’s total land use. This leads us to the conclusion that oil is the backbone of a country like Libya.
Due to the large expanse of the Sahara Desert and scarcity of water resources, over 90% of the Libyan population lives along the Mediterranean coast in and between Tripoli to the west and Al Bayda to the east, leaving the interior vastly underpopulated. This might sound like China, the world’s third largest country, with 1.4 billion people (or 18% of the world), where surprisingly 94% of the population occupies only about 43% of the country’s total land area located mostly east of the country.
Despite Libya’s vastness, the country’s population is about 7.2 million (2023 est.). According to the United Nations Development Programme, of this population, about 2% (about 135,000 people) in 2021 were considered multidimensionally poor. In 2022, Libya was Africa’s 15th largest economy with a GDP of 45.75 billion (Trading Economics, 2022). The country’s GDP per capita income is currently at $22,000 (2021 est.), while the urbanization rate is at least 81%. Libyans are highly educated, with an average literacy rate of 91%.
However, with the vast oil wealth in Libya, the country’s history has been marked by political upheaval. On December 24, 1951, Libya gained its independence from a UN administration following the defeat of Ottoman Turks who had ruled the country until 1943 in World War II.
The rise and fall of Muammar Gaddafi
Although Libya is 72 years old, one man, Muammar Gaddafi dominated the country’s politics for over four decades (more than half of the country’s independent lifetime).
In 1969, Col. Muammar Al-Qadhafi led a military coup that put him to power. Muammar Gaddafi ruled Libya for 42 years until 2011 when he was ousted in an uprising supported by a NATO-backed intervention.
Since the fall of Gaddafi, the country has experienced serious economic, security, and political challenges. The post-Gaddafi era saw an unprecedented rise of armed groups. Until 2014, the armed groups that removed Gaddafi from power continued to fight and eventually ended the civil war that put an end to the post-Qadhafi transition, what many called a second civil war. Since then, the armed groups have formed two competing governments—one that aligns with the UN-backed Tripoli government and another that does not. Notably, Khalifa Haftar, who formed the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) in 2014, has remained the major challenger of the Tripoli regime. In 2019, Haftar’s attempt to capture Tripoli revived another wave of civil war through 2020.
Besides the UN, foreign powers have been extensively involved in Libya since the fall of Gaddafi. Currently, Turkish forces, for instance, back the Tripoli government, while Russia’s Wagner Group fights alongside Khalifa Haftar’s LAAF. The country is now divided into two administrations, one based in the West, and another in the East, and each has its own military and power structure, but continuously clashes over power and resources.
The Libyan public has lost interest in the politics of the country. Since the fall of Gaddafi over a decade ago, Libyans have turned out in dwindling numbers for national elections. In the June 2014 parliamentary elections, only 630,000 turned out to vote. The armed groups and political factions in Libya have continued to disagree on election frameworks. On December 24, 2021, Libya was set for a national election, but the government suddenly dismissed the election committees a day before the election and offered no definite date for an election. With many analysts speculating 2023 as a year the country could potentially hold an election, and only a few days to the close of the year, there are no signs of an election. In fact, in October, the UN Libya envoy said there is no countdown yet to an election. In 2021, UN experts urged foreign mercenaries and paramilitary groups to leave Libya and pave the way for peace and elections in the country.
However, the Wagner group, for example, continues to operate not only in Libya, but the Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Following the killing of the Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his close aides in August, the Kremlin has taken moves to integrate the paramilitary group into the Russian army. On August 22, a Russian delegation led by Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov landed in Benghazi at the invitation of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, leader of the LAAF. This visit was meant to strengthen the security collaboration not just between the Wagner group, but the Russian army.
Invasion of Libya: A Mistake
With all that is going on in Libya today, some people have reflected on the Gaddafi Libya and now. Before 2011, the West, especially, the planners and backers of the removal of Gaddafi cited the “loss of legitimacy” of the regime characterized by impunity, lack of constitution, and democracy. However, 12 years on, only very slight changes have been seen, and many have questioned whether the Western-backed government was worse than the former regime. With widespread impunity by either side, lack of a constitution, and the widespread human rights violations including the trafficking of African migrants, the situation only got worse.
A 2022 U.S. Government Human Rights report pointed, among other human violations in Libya, unlawful or arbitrary killings, torture, serious problems with the independence of the judiciary, and serious restrictions on free expression and media.
Although many economies are recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2022, the Libyan real GDP contracted sharply, by 12.1%, after growing 28.3% in 2021 (African Development Bank, 2023). This, according to the AfDB, was majorly due to the rising conflicts in the country, and the decline in performance of the hydrocarbon market, and to a lesser extent, manufacturing. With two governments, each running their central bank, the performance of the monetary and banking sectors has been jeopardized. The conflict also scared away foreign investment flows into Libya.
On a separate note, Libya has been hit by some of the worst effects of climate change in recent years. On the night of September 10-11, two dams in Derna collapsed, leading to a catastrophic flood that killed over 4,000 people, damaged infrastructure in the Derna region, and led to some 10,000 unaccounted people. This disaster only exacerbates the already existing economic, political, and security challenges that the country struggles with.
Back to the aftermath of the UN humanitarian intervention in Libya, even the former U.S. President Barrack Obama and the brain behind the coalition that toppled Muammar Gaddafi admitted five years after the killing of Gaddafi that his actions in Libya were the worst mistake of his presidency.
The Western powers and the UN Security Council certainly did not plan for the aftermath of their actions but instead dragged the nation into unending instability. The innocent Libyans pay the price for all these actions. At the rate things unfold in Libya, it will take years for the nation to have complete calm.
A similar experience could be drawn from the U.S. invasion of Iraq under President Bush and his small circle of friends who decided to wage war on Iraq in 2003 on the same basis of “lack of legitimacy,” war on terror and the destruction of Iraq’s perceived Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) project. President George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq is arguably one of the biggest mistakes the Bush administration has made. To this day, Bush himself seems to be tormented by his decision to invade Iraq 20 years on, as the situation in Iraq only got worse. Another example is Afghanistan, which saw U.S. occupation for twenty years (2001 to 2021) in another effort to fight terror.
The Afghanistan intervention came at a huge cost. According to the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), the U.S. government not only spent $2.3 trillion in the war, but the intervention led to the deaths of some 176,704 people (2,324 U.S. military personnel, 3,917 U.S. contractors, 1,144 allied troops) from the American side. From the Afghan side, some 70,000 Afghan military and police died, 46,319 Afghan civilians were killed, and 53,000 opposition fighters were killed. On the other hand, almost 67,000 other people were killed in Pakistan in relation to the Afghan war. The situation only got worse since the Taliban took over in August 2021.
Conclusion
As discussed in the Iraqi and Afghan cases above, there is no doubt Libya will need years to arrive at a state of stability and the cost of reconstruction is immense. The earlier foreign interferences cease, the better the timing for Libyans to determine their destiny.
Even though security sector reforms (SSR) and the disarmament, demolition, and reintegration (DDR) approaches have been recommended for the country’s transition into peace and stability, Western and other arms dealers stand in the way of such efforts. Let’s see the UK, for instance, one of the key partners in the invasion of Libya.
Despite the arms embargo, the UK has, since 2013, continued to sell arms to Libya. Overall, over £9 million worth of UK arms were exported to Libya, despite the arms embargo and 2013 saw the highest number of arms licenses in the decade, reaching £7.8 million of military arms licenses alone (AOAV, 2023).
Germany also continues to evade embargoes by supplying arms to countries accused of participating in the war in Libya. For instance, between January 20 and May 3, Germany approved €308.2 million in arms destined for Egypt alone (DW News, 2023), and Berlin also approved €15.1 million in arms exports for Turkey and €7.7 million for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (DW News, 2023).
On the other hand, France, and other arms from the European Union still end up in Libya. Well, the oil money is sweet, but if Libya is to become peaceful again, the world, especially the West, needs to cease interfering in Libya.
It comes without surprise that the UN Peacekeeping Operations (PKOs) have lost support in host countries in recent years. In November 2023, the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the UN PKO “MONUSCO” signed a disengagement plan for the withdrawal of the Mission. This follows a series of protests against the Mission in 2022 by angry Congolese who cite Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (SEA), and failure to bring peace, among other reasons. The mission had, as of January 2023, deployed nearly 18,000 personnel into the DRC.
In West Africa, the military government of Mali has demanded the departure of a similar UN PKO, the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) from Mali. MINUSMA had deployed some 15,000 troops and police in Mali to fight terrorists in the Sahel region.
It is important to note that these interventions have succeeded in some respects but also failed in others. As the UN Chief remarked referring to the MONUSCO departure, it is important to reflect on the achievements made by PKOs deployed around the world.
I acknowledge that the Organization has not succeeded in all respects, but neither have we stood still- UN Chief.
Such interventions must be well thought out and must give room for local voices and ownership. Moreover, they need to minimize unintended consequences such as SEA, looting, and others, and operate with utmost integrity. Western nations, especially, need to avoid conflict of interest while thinking about intervening in conflicts abroad, as well as applying the ‘one size fits all’ approach across diverse geographies, cultures, and polities.
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