Photo Credit: Kampala International University (Accessed here)
On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, and his subordinate, Ms. Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, the Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation. However, until the last minute, President Putin was meant to travel to South Africa this August to attend the BRICS summit. That aside, Türkiye’s Erdoğan might soon receive Putin in Ankara. If the Russian President were to come to Kampala, do you think Museveni would arrest him? The article answers this question and elaborates on the dynamics of the ICC arrest warrant.
On The “Wanted” List
The ICC wants to arrest the sitting President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, for alleged crimes relating to the deportation of children from the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine into the Russian Federation. According to the ICC, transferring civilians from their home territories into another territory goes against international law. Putin and his subordinate, Ms. Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, the Commissioner for Children’s Rights, are the first high-profile Russian leaders to be summoned.
“Today, March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court has issued two warrants of arrest in the Ukraine situation. For Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, and Commissioner Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, Commissioner for Children’s Rights …” reads part of the official statement of ICC President Judge Piotr Hofmański posted on the Court’s YouTube Channel.
This is not the first time the Court has issued such arrest warrants for sitting presidents. In the list of 31 cases listed on its website, you would see some familiar current and former presidents.
Although his case has been closed, in 2014, Uhuru Kenyatta, the former president of Kenya, became the first sitting president to appear before the ICC on charges relating to the 2007-2008 post-election violence in Kenya. The current President of Kenya and then Vice President of Kenya, William Samoei Ruto, was summoned by the Court but cleared in April 2016. The ICC also issued two arrest warrants for the former Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir, first in 2009 and later in 2010, for crimes committed against humanity in the Darfur region of Sudan.
Other Ugandans on the list are former Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) commander Dominic Ongwen (under the custody of the Court), LRA leader Joseph Kony (wanted), and other individuals in the LRA leadership.
What Did Putin and Lvova-Belova Actually Do?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, is one of today's most contentious international relations challenges, not just for the “West” but for Africa. As the war in Ukraine reaches nearly a year and a half, the world is divided, mostly along U.S. and Chinese lines. The battle is now over who wins more global support—is it the U.S. position that condemns the war outright, or is it the Chinese position of ‘neutrality? No wonder, in the UN General Assembly vote on the Ukraine war, 17 of the 35 countries that abstained were African states, including Uganda.
Although no one expected the Ukraine invasion to last this long, at this point, it is hard to tell when the guns will go silent in Ukraine. Experts have said that the economic damage caused to Ukraine is worse than any other in the world since World War II. The war in Ukraine has had a ripple effect in Africa. According to recent research, in 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50 per cent of their wheat products from the Russian Federation or Ukraine. Six of these countries (Eritrea, Egypt, Benin, Sudan, Djibouti, and Tanzania) imported over 70 per cent of their wheat from the region. In Europe, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s benchmark electricity price has risen to 10 times its decade-long average.
However, the ICC is not arresting Putin for the economic damage his war caused to the Ukrainian or global economies. Rather, the Court has seen Putin’s actions in Ukraine through a “human rights” lens. According to Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman, some 2.8 million Ukrainians (between 260 000 and 700 000 children) were deported to Russia, but the Kremlin puts this figure at 4.5 million. According to Ukraine World, a Ukraine-based newspaper, the Kremlin aims to deport as many young Ukrainians as possible.
According to the ICC, the President of the Russian Federation and his Commissioner for Children’s Rights are responsible for all this and must appear before the Court in The Hague.
Setting Traps for Putin
The ICC now obligates its members to arrest Putin or any of their commissioners for Children’s Rights should they step foot in their territories. In 2022, before President Putin invaded Ukraine, he met with President Xi Jinping in Beijing from February 4-5. He also attended the opening ceremony of the 2022 Winter Olympics. Even after the invasion, President Putin was in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in June. By the end of 2022, Putin had made at least nine international trips, concluding the year with a working visit to Minsk, Belarus.
Although this article does not explain why Putin has not made any international trips in 2023, except for the rumored trips to South Africa and Türkiye in August, the world is watching to see if the two visits will lead to the arrest of the topmost Russian leader.
However, Putin, after a series of talks with Russia and South Africa, has confirmed he will not travel to South Africa anymore. You may wonder what was going to take Putin to South Africa, right? On August 22, the “BRICS” Summit kicks off in Johannesburg. “BRICS” is an alliance of five nations, notably Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The BRICS bloc has a combined population of 3.23 billion people and a combined GDP of over $23 trillion. In other words, BRICS is some sort of anti-G7 alliance of the West that includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union.
15th BRICS Summit: South Africa’s Nightmare?
South Africa’s President, Cyril Ramaphosa, has been caught in a dilemma over whether or not to allow the Russian President to attend the 15th BRICS Summit with his ICC warrant of arrest. The President even had to set up a separate committee to look into the legal possibilities of having a Russian head of state. The country’s opposition leadership took legal steps to prevent Putin from stepping on South African soil. President Ramaphosa said, in a 32-page affidavit, that arresting Putin would drag the two countries to war.
After failing to condemn a fellow BRICS member in the UN General Assembly vote last year, South Africa earned enough Western attention. Not arresting Putin could automatically drag South Africa into the West’s bad books. Remember, the same South Africa, in 2005, refused to arrest the then Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir, when he visited the country and was “wanted” by the ICC.
Fortunately, South Africa’s prayers have been answered. After diplomatic negotiations, President Putin confirmed missing the BRICS Summit next month. Instead, Sergey Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, will be in attendance.
What If This Involved Uganda?
Given the country's growing tilt toward Russia, China, and the Middle East, I argue that this could have been Uganda, all of which are the West’s adversaries. Uganda might have stepped on the West’s feet even more than South Africa. Uganda abstained in the UN vote to condemn Russia's aggression on Ukraine. Uganda has gone the extra mile by introducing the Anti-Homosexuality Act of 2023, a law collectively condemned by the West. The U.S. is discussing the appropriate ‘types and dosages’ of sanctions to administer to Uganda. I argue that if the South African scenario were in Uganda and Museveni chose not to arrest the “Wanted” leader, this could earn Uganda a high level of international isolation and a speedy disconnection from the West. I argue that Uganda would have done everything it could to not allow President Putin into the country to maintain its relationship with the West. If this were to happen in Uganda and Museveni didn't arrest Putin, it would be the second time he would have refused to comply with the ICC’s obligations. In May 2016, the then-president of Sudan, Al-Bashir, although summoned by the Court, attended Museveni’s investiture in Kampala and returned home without any arrest by Uganda. Moreover, Museveni called the ICC a “bunch of useless people,” triggering protests from diplomats from several Western countries, including Canada and the U.S.
The current international system is getting more divided between the “West” and the “East.” Africa is caught between choosing whom to associate with without angering others. The West’s traditional relationship with Africa, although still strong, continues to be threatened by a rising China, Iran, Russia, and other Middle Eastern countries. An active role in international politics and diplomacy involving the arrest of a sitting president has proven to be a daunting task for Africa.
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